October Sales Fall 10% – How Retailers Can Rebound for BFCM

Ecommerce marketing platform Omnisend looked into the sales of 45,000 US-based ecommerce brands and found that sales this October have fallen by 10.1% year-over-year. The number of orders has also decreased by 23.4%.

For comparison, last year brands sold 17.7% more orders in October than they did during the same period in 2022. With holiday shopping starting earlier each year, the kickoff to this year’s extended holiday shopping season has been slower than expected. 

“Amazon’s recent Prime Big Deal Days, named their ‘biggest ever,’ combined with Walmart and Target’s corresponding sales events likely pulled a significant share of consumer spending, which left many DTC retailers feeling the impact and leading to a thinner spread across Q4,” says Greg Zakowicz, Sr. Ecommerce Expert at Omnisend.

“Additionally, volatile economic conditions and the rise of deep discount retailers like Temu lure shoppers away from smaller brands by consistently undercutting prices. In fact, 70% of US consumers report making a purchase on Temu in the past year.”

“These shifts not only strain smaller brands but also reshape consumer expectations, normalizing rock-bottom prices and reinforcing a culture of bargain-hunting that can make loyalty and long-term brand growth harder to achieve.”

Below, Greg Zakowicz dives deeper into what brands can do to make the most out of the month-long run-up to BFCM

Economy and Consumer Spending

With interest rates recently lowered, the economy shows cautious stability. As consumers become more intentional with spending post-inflation, one-third of U.S. shoppers plan to cut back this holiday season. For brands, this means marketing efforts must intensify to maintain engagement and compete for customers in an uncertain market, a particular challenge for small businesses.

Brand Strategies:

Brands should emphasize value, showcasing shipping and return policies, satisfaction guarantees, gift-wrapping, product quality, and social proof to build consumer trust. Additionally, offering value-added pricing through bundles, category-specific sales, and bonus incentives can attract shoppers while preserving margins.

Marketplaces, Prime Big Deal Days, and Timing Discounts

Value-conscious shoppers are increasingly turning to discount platforms like Temu and Shein, impacting smaller retailers. Besides competitive pricing, these marketplaces will likely dominate paid ad spaces, raising ad costs for brands across social media and digital platforms.

Brand Strategies:

To counter these pressures, brands should leverage high-ROI, first-party channels such as email and SMS to maximize engagement and reduce ad costs by syncing customer data for targeted retargeting. October’s Prime Big Deal Days signaled the holiday season’s unofficial start, so brands should be prepared to offer value early and gradually increase discounts, leaning into Black Friday week and utilizing high-conversion, low-competition weekend sends to boost visibility.