Revenue jumps 12.6% for ecommerce SMBs, but nearly 37% anticipate negative tariff impacts

Omnisend data from 8,187 U.S. small- and medium-sized ecommerce merchants showed Q1 2025 outpacing Q1 2024 across the board: total revenue rose 12.6%, driven by a 3.6% surge in order volume and a 9.4% increase in average order value.

Industries that saw the biggest uptick were:

• Automotive: 545% growth in revenue; 8% growth in order volume; 668% increase in AOV;
• Games: +36% in revenue; +65% in order volume;
• Apparel: +34% in revenue; +9% in order volume;
• Health: +23% in revenue; +9.6% in order volume;
• Beauty & Fitness: +15.4% in revenue; +31% in order volume.

However, days after the quarter ended, President Trump announced unprecedented tariffs – a baseline 10 percent duty on nearly all imports, plus country-specific hikes based on trade imbalances.

In an Omnisend survey of 40 merchants:

• 36.8% anticipate a negative business impact from tariffs;
• 13.2% percent expect it to be “significant”;
• 64% percent believe consumers will spend less over the next 12 months.

“While consumers may be stocking up in tariff-heavy retail sectors to avoid expected price hikes, more noticeable is the increase in AOV, indicating consumers are spending a larger share of their wallets with companies,” says Greg Zakowicz, Sr. Ecommerce Expert at Omnisend. “This means there are fewer overall sales to go around, making customer acquisition more difficult and retention that much more important.”   

The fastest-growing sectors now face the biggest tariff risks

The very categories that thrived last quarter now face the greatest threat from newly imposed tariffs. The auto industry, which led in every metric, is bracing for a 25% duty on many imported components and parts. Similarly, consumer electronics, apparel, and health and beauty products – most of which rely on Chinese imports – face 10% or higher tariffs on essential goods. 

In contrast, categories that underperformed in Q1 – such as Home & Garden, which was down 95% in revenue and 75% in AOV year-over-year – may prove more resilient, as they rely more on local suppliers and domestic production.

“Consumers know the cost of goods will increase, but by how much is anyone’s guess,” says Zakowicz. “The constant and unpredictable reversals and adjustments of tariffs lack consistent context, meaning consumers don’t know how to properly plan for their immediate budgetary future, much less a long-term one. This can result in reduced spending,” he explains. “If I’m a company, this form of unpredictability is not my friend.”