This year, consumers across the U.S. plan to spend nearly $80 billion online and in-store during Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM), an increase of about $20 billion compared to last year, according to a new survey conducted by Omnisend, the ecommerce marketing company.
Based on shopper budgets, the average consumer expects to spend $340 on Black Friday and $300 on Cyber Monday, representing an additional $90 on Black Friday and $60 on Cyber Monday per shopper compared to 2024.
“Shoppers aren’t just chasing discounts — they’re making strategic financial decisions,” said Marty Bauer, ecommerce and retail expert at Omnisend. “Even though many Americans are facing higher living costs, credit card debt, and tighter budgets, they’re choosing to lean into BFCM as the best time to make their money go further. People are spending more during BFCM not because they’re carefree, but because they see it as the smartest financial strategy in a tough economy.”
According to the survey, 40% of shoppers say they’ll spend more than last year on Black Friday, and 32% expect to increase their Cyber Monday budgets. Most shoppers will spend between $100 and $499 this year, with only a small group of big-ticket buyers exceeding $1,000.
While shoppers are planning to spend more during BFCM to take advantage of sales, on a whole, Americans plan to spend less this holiday, with many planning to take on post-holiday debt slated to total $55 billion.
BNPL gains ground, but upfront payment still preferred
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services like Klarna and Afterpay are part of the BFCM mix, but remain a secondary choice. Around 21% of respondents plan to use BNPL on Black Friday and 17% on Cyber Monday, mainly for big-ticket items. However, nearly half of consumers say they prefer to pay everything upfront.
“BNPL has established itself as a viable payment option, but trust and financial control still matter,” Bauer noted. “Shoppers are willing to use BNPL for big purchases, but the majority still prefer the peace of mind of paying upfront.”
Discounts and free shipping drive purchase decisions
Shoppers are clear about what motivates them most: discounts are the top priority for 68% of respondents. Free shipping is close behind, influencing 52% of buyers. Early access and limited-time offers drive nearly one-third of shoppers, but loyalty rewards (20%) and influencer promotions (16%) have far less impact. These insights confirm that in a competitive BFCM season, retailers cannot afford to underestimate the enduring importance of practical savings and convenience.
“This data proves that the basics still win,” Bauer emphasized. “Discounts and free shipping are what consumers want most, while loyalty programs and influencer campaigns play a much smaller role in driving actual purchase decisions.”
Amazon dominates, but new players are rising
When asked where they plan to shop, 73% of consumers named Amazon as their go-to destination for BFCM. Walmart (54%) and Target (38%) continue to hold strong positions, particularly for everyday essentials.
However, the landscape is shifting: Temu is now on the radar with 16% of shoppers, while TikTok Shop has captured the interest of 10%. These findings highlight how new platforms are entering the BFCM conversation and competing with established giants.
“Amazon is still the undisputed leader, but shoppers are becoming more adventurous,” Bauer commented. “The rise of Temu and TikTok Shop shows that new platforms are successfully capturing attention with aggressive pricing and social-driven commerce.”
Fashion and tech lead, toys gain momentum
Clothing and accessories (53%) and tech and electronics (47%) remain the top categories for Black Friday purchases. Toys and games are also gaining ground, with one in three shoppers planning to buy gifts for children during BFCM. Beauty and self-care (28%), home décor (24%), and food and drinks (20%) round out the top categories, reflecting a mix of lifestyle and practical spending.
“Fashion and tech are evergreen categories, but the rise of toys shows how parents are waiting until BFCM to stretch holiday budgets,” Bauer said.
Expert tips for retailers
According to Bauer, retailers should lean into the financial context when shaping BFCM strategies:
- Position deals as financial relief — show consumers how BFCM purchases save money in the long run.
- Focus on free shipping and discounts, which remain the most persuasive levers.
- Offer tiered promotions to appeal to both cautious budgeters and high-spenders.
- Experiment with emerging platforms like Temu and TikTok Shop, which are capturing consumer attention.
- Save time with automation tools like Omnisend to schedule campaigns, personalize messages at scale, and ensure offers reach shoppers at the moments they’re most likely to buy.
“Americans are financially stretched but still determined to shop smart,” Bauer concluded. “Retailers who connect their promotions to real value and savings will capture the strongest growth this BFCM.”
Methodology
The survey was commissioned by Omnisend and conducted by Cint in August of 2025, polling 1,200 U.S.-based consumers about their shopping plans for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025. Respondents were asked about expected spending, shopping categories, payment preferences, retail destinations, and year-over-year comparisons.
Average spend estimates were calculated using midpoints of reported spending ranges (e.g., $175 for $100–$249, $375 for $250–$499). Year-over-year changes were calculated based on consumer self-reports (e.g., “I expect to spend $100–$249 more”). To estimate total market size and growth, averages were extrapolated to the U.S. shopping population using National Retail Federation data, which reported ~170 million Americans participated in BFCM 2024.
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